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Is this a bug or what we should expect from now on?
Comments
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5 shards every bag here too, surprise surprise.
Only solution, give everyone KO 4ss for free0 -
dkmanagler asked after I had it reviewed so nothing additional from him on the subject. The answer is the answer regardless of who you ask or whether you choose to believe it or not.
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I'd suggest checking out some youtube videos on how RNG works as an explanation of how not being 100% works. There ere multiple options that can be rolled besides 5 shards but 5 is weighted the highest. It's working as intended. While there may have been some rare ones in the past this one was considered to be more rare/exclusive.
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How does that even make sense that last month the shards weren't all 5? Why is KO the first time we're seeing this happening? Are they saying some superstars odds are different than others each time even though they're the same bag from the same monthly calendar and are also rare? I get the top bag that takes multiple days to aquire will always be the lower end and be shards over the poster but this wasn't that bag. Ask them this for me since they are referencing the daily login login rewards. If I login for 44 days straight why am I not only hitting the low end all 44 on calendar rewards? You yourselves Scopely said it's meant to hit the lowest 8x in most cases and the high 9-10x in rare chances. So if something says 5-200 shards how did 44 times all at once hit all 5 shards? Make it make sense.
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RNG stands for random number generator. Maybe you need to jump on Google and read about what that is. Better yet they have websites where you can use a random number generator. So I want you to go type in 5-200 on this random number generator and set it to do it 44 times and if you come back and say yes all 44 hit 5 it's so crazy then players will think yup must be it the reason it happened was random number generator. Didn't happen last month, the month before, the month before, etc but it did just this month. That's what we're trying to say. Did the random number generator change to always screw us and give us the lowest amount? Why did it just change all of a sudden? W
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This is really condescending. People here know how RNG works. What we're telling you is that the odds on these bags are not at all consistent with what they were in previous months. Many people have chimed in saying that all 44 bags have had the lowest possible reward. I don't always pay attention to the exact number of shards I get from most of these bags but I do know that I have NEVER had a month where every bag was the lowest possible number of shards, every time.
So now the explanation has changed to "this one is considered to be more rare/exclusive". Huh???Why??? Striker KO is pretty good, but I don't think anybody considers him to be the best Striker in the game or anything. So this is an acknowledgement that the rates were changed now because he's considered more rare/exclusive, when he's another A tier character with a 1600 shard recruit, just like Judgment Day Finn Balor, just like Powerhouse Rick Steiner. WHY is he considered more rare/exclusive???
If y'all aren't going to tell us the actual drop rates on the shards in these bags, all we can do is provide our evidence that the "not 100%" rate is more like 99.9% chance of being a 5-shard pull. Why are the pull rates being obfuscated like this, why do the players not deserve to know what the actual rates are?
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And if you're trying to say rarer superstars the odds in a "random number generator" that didn't give random numbers but gave only 1 number 5 even though a random number generator would give random numbers all the way to 200 does that mean a loot coin when it's a more rare superstar is added to the game let's say like Bray Wyatt the random number generator is set to give the lowest results. Explains why so many did the mega loot with multiple featured and only got shards and not just shards but lowest shards. Got it so if a more rare superstar is in the game people should not even bother because It's always meant to give you the lowest results. Appreciate the clarity. So the odds of 1 superstar is set to a different number than others. I understand now.
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Maybe they should put on all bags and apparently loot coins but only for certain superstars because we are left in the dark about who Scopely value more elusive than others that this superstar has less odds of getting anything besides the lowest value so we all know from now on. I agree what D0ngz is saying you're coming off as condescending like we're morons who never heard of a number generator. DK Mangler is addressing everyone in a more understanding way trying to get us answers and like I said you just come in kick a hornets nest and stir everyone up. "Go watch a YouTube video how a number generator works" REALLY!
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So this month the calendar superstar is Rosey can we get clarity on does Scopely value him as more rare or exclusive so we don't ask again after this month why we only got 5 shards. Better yet can they just make us a list that says the superstars that will be in calendar bags rest of this year are more rare and exclusive or ones that they don't value as high that will give more than 5 shards? That way everyone knows and we don't even have to talk about it anymore.
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Like if KO is SNG (same number generator) will Rosey be SNG also or is he seen as less in value and will be RNG (random number generator)? We'd all love to know what we should expect this month vs last month.
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hello everyone. We are not scopely employees and are only able to pass along specific details given to us to assist in your inquiries. Regarding the bag odds, we do not have access to this Information but were told it’s very low for anything higher than 5 shards. I don’t know if it will be the same for Rosey or for others going forward. Thanks
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already got 2 different shard values from the rosey bags and two higher numbers than 5 so clearly there was an issue with the KO bags but chasing away the players with pitchforks is easier than dealing with it huh?
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It's not an "issue" exactly. They've confirmed to us, through the mods, that they set the probability of getting 5 shards higher for the KO bag intentionally.
Here's the thing. I counted at least 12 people in this thread saying all 44 bags came back with 5. That's 528. I played with my probability calculator a bit and even if I set the rate of one result at 99.9% it's still only about 59% likely to get a run of 528. At 99.95% is 77% likely. So you can get an idea of how heavily they must have weighted the 5 shard outcome.
My current career showdown rank is 49,967. So 12 is a small sample. We know there are more but I went with what I could easily count.
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So, I'm not arguing with the point that the shards are too low. I agree with that. But.. your data analysis is incorrect. The only people you are hearing from are the ones who got all 5's. The ones who had better pulls don't feel the need to come online and complain about it.
Like I said, I do think it was too low. I had all 5s too. Just that the data is flawed.
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That's not how it works. The probability I ran is the probability to get 528 results in the 5 shard bucket. It doesn't matter at all how many other people do pulls because each and every pull operates on independent odds.
What I did is no different than calculating the likelihood of rolling a runs of 6s on a standard die. That probability does not change just because someone else rolled a different die at the same time somewhere else.
I also acknowledged the limited data set.
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I never said it was wrong to question it I said that it was bad rng and it was weighted towards the 5 shards. I looked into it as I said and just like I said dkmangler backed it up. Where did I call anybody a liar? Though you seem to be one with this post.
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