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odds and straps

So today I bought 2 straps off the clapboard prizewall and both are the exact same. I was like that seemed crazy, and also not the first time it had happened. So I start doing the Math and boy apparently I just have astronomically bad luck or....

This is going to get deep here so hold on. What makes up a belt, well 4 things Era, Sex, Class, and Bonus.

Era is 1 in 7 (Not IOW or HOF)

M/F is 1 in 2

class is 1 in 6

bonus is 1 in 10 (I can't click to see if there were more options than that as I bought the 2 straps)

That is 840 combinations (7*2*6*10)

Now that is assuming there is no weighting happening giving different types higher chances. Just straight-up odds which is what it should be.

Now here is where it gets really crazy. if there are 840 combinations to get the exact same belt combination 2 times in a row is 840*840 or 1 in 705,600. 839 other combinations could have come up on belt 2. Now for it to happen multiple times when I get 2 belts is even crazier odds which seems like there is an issue not just astronomical odds.

So is something SUS with the belts when you get multiple at the same time that the odds don't re-roll? Or is my math of combinations off, which it logically checks out, and I ran it past my structural engineer to make sure it seemed right.


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Comments

  • XanDeR13
    XanDeR13 Member ✭✭✭

    Had the same thing happen to me when I maxed out faction warscore competition earlier to get 2 Ultimate straps. I remember you mentioning this on discord and thought maybe what happened to you was just a super rare co-incidence. Low and behold, I claim my reward go to my inventory and both Ultimate Straps were New Gen, Striker, 30% Move Defense Straps - exact same. So here I am leaving my feedback that I too encountered the same thing. I was so disgusted I removed them from my inventory but rest-assured this definitely happened to me as well.

  • well today's 2 ultimate straps from the milestone in warscore were, you guessed it, the same. 2 new gen, striker, male, 40% gem defense. Come on.

  • Sheisserick
    Sheisserick Member ✭✭✭

    I got 2 Ultimate Straps of same Era and Class also... However my bonuses were different?

    Odds of that would be 1,1%

    I also just assumed it was a fluke coincidence, as 1% is bound to happend to someone.