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Odds on Loot Pulls
Hi Guys,
I'm not a mathematician but I do fancy myself reasonable with numbers but I just don't feel like the odds on loot pulls is correct. Whenever I see a new loot come out, one thing I do is see what the odds of me pulling a new superstar are. If the chance to pull a featured superstar is 1%, and there is 6 pulls there I dont have, and 4 I do, I am a 60% chance of 1% of pulling a superstar (or 0.6% chance) I dont have. I go through the Featured, Mega Rare, Rare etc and see what my percentages are often before decided to buy a coin so I know my chances.
Today for the Boogeyman loot I had the following odds.
Featured 1% chance - 13 I had, 19 I didnt, so 19/32 of 1% was .6%
Mega Rare 3.81% chance - .6% chance for me
Very Rare 9.52% chance - 4.0% chance for me
Rare 38.08% chance - 8.5% chance for me
Common 47.6% chance - 10.7% chance for me
Overall I am a 24.4% chance to pull a new superstar
However I used a 30 pull, and low and behold for maybe the 4th time in a row, I haven't pulled a new superstar. Now providing the math above is right based on what they tell us in the odds. Your essentially saying open and shuffle a pack of cards. Everytime you pull a Heart, that would be a new superstar, I know there would be diminishing odds after every new pull, but consider I haven't landed a pull that doesnt apply here.
I then sat there and thought what are the chances if I am a 25% chance every time to pull something, and I'm trying it 30 times, what are the odds I pull nothing... I had to do some searching and am not sure I am right but I found a formula that was "1 - (Odds of not hitting ^ #of Pulls) is your odds of hitting at least one pull so for me that was 1 - (76%^30) being 99.97% chance to land a new pull. If I was a 10% chance to land a pull and tried twice, 1 - (10%^2) I am a 19% chance to land one pull. I believe the math is right.
Using all of this, the last 4 times I have done a maximum pull I have had over 99% chance to land a single pull and have not hit one. Are Scopely fabricating these odds and not showing what the true odds of pulling a new superstar are or is my math wrong or is there some other explanation? Happy to discuss.
Comments
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unless specified pulls are not "equal odds" pulls that's why they do specify it when they are, which means if you hit the 1% or so for a featured they all have individual different % in that rarity
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I didn't think it worked that way. Equal Odds only refers to the fact that the Common, Rare, Featured are all the same odds. being 20% each for 5 different categories. The chances of pulling from each category would be the same as what I have used above.
So you are saying that even though there is a 40% chance to pull from Common, and I need 7 of the 31 pulls in the Common Pool, there might be odds within the odds, essentially saying those 7 could be a 1% chance inside that 40%, and the other 24 pulls I already have are 99% chance inside the 40%? If that makes any sense...
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Its not "might be", that is literally how the pulls work.
The percentages you see are your chances to land in that rarity level. Once in there, there is a secondary set of odds for the cards that come out of there.
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The odds you see posted are to get in that tier. Once you are in that tier each of them cards also have an odd
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Yep, through Scopely's insane odds manipulation, there's a good chance that you're more likely to get the junk shards in the "Mega Rare" section than the good cards in the "Common" section.
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My take on loot pulls is. Spend after 6 months. That way a ton of characters you don't have are populated in the pool. You are bound to snag something by then. Personally, I have committed to only buying loot pulls IF, and only IF, I get a character from the debut bags. The chances are so extremely low that it helps temper my expectations of doing loot pulls. I say to myself when I get that FOMO anxiety, if I don't get the character from the bag, then what are chances I'll get it from the loot? I got yokozuna from his debut after months long hiatus, then did a 40 pull, I was missing so many cards, that I got 6 new ones all differing rarities. Now again I'm just waiting for a card from a bag until my next spend, so either it's next month or it's next year I'm not fussed.
Edit: hof yokozuna
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How isn't this against the play store rules? Aren't they required to show all of the odds?
Showing odds of something just to have additional hidden odds below it is kind of slimey
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You also aren’t pulling from a deck of cards per se. Each pull has the same odds as the last pull. Odds don’t increase twofold if you have two pulls. It is simply two pulls, at the same odds.
Buying more than one pull theoretically actually devalues any pull you get.
Think about it in lottery terms. If you spend $1 and win the jackpot, your odds of winning were astronomical. Now, if you spend $100 instead of $1, those odds don’t change (they do to a decreasingly small amount) but now you spent 100x more capital to increase your “odds” by maybe .001%.
Factor in tiered odds inside of a tier, and it’s a sucker bet.
Buy one pull if you want and roll the dice. Or 20. But don’t have any expectation that additional pulls will result in additional wins.
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yeah it's a pretty accurate explanation of how RNG works indeed
only exception is that these days most of the main loot pulls show they have a guaranteed reward, for example the current Mr. McMahon pulls:
- a 40 pulls guarantees 2x Mega rares or higher
- a 7 pulls guarantees a rare or higher
- 1 single pull guarantees nothing
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@Ramsay There's a difference between RNG and deception. If Scopely is not purposefully trying to be deceptive, why would loot pulls not be structured in one of two ways:
- All items in a specific category have an equal chance of being pulled
- Odds are posted for every single specific card
@Firpo , @ThePacMan , @DKMangler , @Stagger Lee , feel free to chime in as well
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Hi everyone,
I have been doing loot pulls usually in batches of 5 or 7, once per week... for the last six weeks including today.
All of those pulls ended disappointingly. Either shards of common characters, fuses of common characters or minuscule shards of unowned characters.
To me, it's not picking up a high tiered character anymore. It's more about collecting coins and tokens to build up a roster.
So when you look at a category of the pulls you are about to perform - for example, in a "Rare" category - you'd think the odds of getting a pull in this category seem reasonable at say 20%, chances if your pulls falls in that category, you are very likely you will get a character at near the bottom of the category, not near the top of the category.
If it was purely random if your pull falls in that category, you could put the odds at 1 in 10 if there are 10 characters in that category. But because of the increased seeding towards the bottom selections, it's more of a case of a 70% chance of the 1 in 10 chance of getting them, and those odds decrease the higher up they go. Without knowing the exact algorithm Scopely uses, it feels like if I was going to pull the first character at the top of the category (as opposed to the last character at the bottom of the category), it's like a 1% out of the 1 in 10 chance, if that makes sense.
It's all designed to ensure at the end of the day, you don't get the characters you want, and it explains why my pulls hitherto has been unsuccessful, despite doing a lot of pulls lately.
To be honest, I am actually grateful that my pulls have been really bad! Had my luck been really good, it would have tempted me to spend a lot more money than I can actually afford. My feet are firmly planted on the ground. I haven't spent frivolously on this game thus far, and I won't in the future.
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Pull odds are intentionally deceptive to give you the impression the rarer cards are obtainable if you hit a certain tier category, ie Featured. However, the distribution of cards in that category is skewed HEAVILY toward common characters. So your odds of getting that great new card are incredibly small. Like 1 in 5000 or worse.
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I really wish they would publish the hidden odds within each tier. It is incredibly misleading to state the percentage chance to land in a rarity group, but then have no clue what happens from there. Every month with the monthly keys, I take a look to see if there are any new characters. I always see a couple at the top of the list of the common section so it gives the impression that they won't be hard to get, but of course after like 250 pulls a month, I never get any of them despite them being in the "common" group. The odds of getting a low level card in the Rare or even Super Rare category seems much higher than getting one of the higher level cards in the Common category.
I wish they would just get rid of the different tier's and tell us the odds of getting each character so I don't feel like I get robbed every month. Or just list the odds within each tier, as convoluted as that would be.
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We've passed this on as a suggestion before.
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Which is why I rarely pull now. Just shoot for as many shards I can earn for a new character the weekend they drop, and if I get them, cool..if not at least I'm close. I'll purchase shards when offered if I'm going to get the character. It's just works out better for me $$ wise that way.
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Tinfoil hat time: The reason Scopely can't publish complete odds? Because the odds are constantly changing. Here's my theory - Scopely modifies the odds based on several factors that are designed to keep you just frustrated enough to keep spending. A few observations:
- 1st observation: Ever seen someone post that they pulled the featured character on a single pull? Common sense would tell you that this doesn't add up. There are plenty of players that do 40x pulls and don't get the featured character. Which is more likely? That a random player got the 1/1000 pull from a single coin instead of the 10x faction mates that didn't get it from 40x pulls? Or that Scopely WANTED to give that player a great pull? Now, that player that might have only spent $2 on a pull suddenly has a project. They just got a 5sg featured character that is super OP. But as an almost F2P player, they don't have the millions of coin and thousands of TP to max that character out. So, why not buy a $10 coin pack? Or a $20 TP pack? And suddenly, that mostly F2P player is SPENDING. Just like Scopely wanted.
- 2nd observation: Ever taken a spending break? Thought to yourself, "I'm only going to spend $10 this month." Or $5. Or $20. Whatever you consider a significant decrease. After a few weeks of reduced spending, not doing pulls, not buying shop offers, you finally see a loot you like. You drop $20, or $40, or $100, or whatever, and BAM, you get a great pull. Now, whether you know it or not, you've mentally decided that maybe the pulls aren't so bad. Scopely is pretty fair after all. Now, you're back SPENDING again. But maybe that lucky pull wasn't luck after all...
- 3rd observation: Sometimes, despite your best efforts, you'll finish a weekend missing 50x or 100x shards of the featured character. No problem, you think. I did a few pulls earlier in the weekend and got a bunch of shards for the new wrestler. So you do a quick $20 7x pull... no shards. Another $20 7x pull...10 shards. Screw it, you think to yourself, I'll just get the $100 back and be done with it... maybe you'll get the last shards you need. Maybe you'll need to get one more $20 pack. Or two more. But somehow when you're so close to the finish line, it feels like you just aren't as lucky as you were before...
Of course, this is all anecdotal. But I've heard the same stories from several players. So maybe the overall odds for each tier are set. But within the tier, those odds could shift based on player activity, spending habits, roster status, etc. It's a little crazy, but the loot system is a little crazy. So maybe there's more to it than meets the eye...
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